Ellsberg paradox

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۹ بهمن ۱۳۹۳

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The Ellsberg paradox is a antithesis in welfare speculation in that people’s choices violate a postulates of biased approaching utility.[1] It is generally taken to be justification for ambiguity aversion. The antithesis was popularized by Daniel Ellsberg, nonetheless a chronicle of it was remarkable extremely progressing by John Maynard Keynes.[2]

The simple suspicion is that people overwhelmingly bring holding on risk in situations where they know specific contingency rather than an choice risk unfolding in that a contingency are totally ambiguous—they will always select a famous luck of winning over an opposite luck of winning even if a famous luck is low and a opposite luck could be a pledge of winning. That is, given a choice of risks to take (such as bets), people “prefer a demon they know” rather than presumption a risk where contingency are formidable or unfit to calculate.[3]

Ellsberg indeed due dual apart suspicion experiments, a due choices that protest biased approaching utility. The 2-color problem involves bets on dual urns, both of that enclose balls of dual opposite colors. The 3-color problem, described below, involves bets on a singular urn, that contains balls of 3 opposite colors.

The 1 vessel paradox[edit]

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Suppose we have an vessel containing 30 red balls and 60 other balls that are possibly black or yellow. You don’t know how many black or how many yellow balls there are, yet that a sum series of black balls and a sum series of yellow equals 60. The balls are good churned so that any particular round is as approaching to be drawn as any other. You are now given a choice between dual gambles:

Also we are given a choice between these dual gambles (about a opposite pull from a same urn):

This conditions poses both Knightian uncertainty – how many of a non-red balls are yellow and how many are black, that is not quantified – and probability – either a round is red or non-red, that is ⅓ vs. ⅔.

Utility speculation interpretation[edit]

Utility speculation models a choice by presumption that in selecting between these gambles, people assume a probability that a non-red balls are yellow contra black, and afterwards discriminate a expected utility of a dual gambles.

Since a prizes are accurately a same, it follows that we will prefer Gamble A to Gamble B if and usually if we trust that sketch a red round is some-more approaching than sketch a black round (according to approaching application theory). Also, there would be no transparent welfare between a choices if we suspicion that a red round was as approaching as a black ball. Similarly it follows that we will prefer Gamble C to Gamble D if, and usually if, we trust that sketch a red or yellow round is some-more approaching than sketch a black or yellow ball. It cunning seem discerning that, if sketch a red round is some-more approaching than sketch a black ball, afterwards sketch a red or yellow round is also some-more approaching than sketch a black or yellow ball. So, assuming we prefer Gamble A to Gamble B, it follows that we will also prefer Gamble C to Gamble D. And, assuming instead that we prefer Gamble B to Gamble A, it follows that we will also prefer Gamble D to Gamble C.

When surveyed, however, many people strictly prefer Gamble A to Gamble B and Gamble D to Gamble C. Therefore, some assumptions of a approaching application speculation are violated.

Mathematical demonstration[edit]

Mathematically, your estimated probabilities of any tone round can be represented as: R, Y, and B. If we strictly prefer Gamble A to Gamble B, by application theory, it is reputed this welfare is reflected by a approaching utilities of a dual gambles: specifically, it contingency be a box that

where is your application function. If (you particularly bring $100 to nothing), this simplifies to:

If we also particularly bring Gamble D to Gamble C, a following inequality is further obtained:

This simplifies to:

This counterbalance indicates that your preferences are unsuitable with expected-utility theory.

Generality of a paradox[edit]

Note that a outcome binds regardless of your application function. Indeed, a volume of a boon is further irrelevant. Whichever play we choose, a esteem for winning it is a same, and a cost of losing it is a same (no cost), so ultimately, there are usually dual outcomes: we accept a specific volume of money, or we accept nothing. Therefore it is sufficient to assume that we bring receiving some income to receiving zero (and in fact, this arrogance is not required — in a mathematical diagnosis above, it was insincere U($100) U($0), yet a counterbalance can still be performed for U($100) U($0) and for U($100) = U($0)).

In addition, a outcome binds regardless of your risk aversion. All a gambles engage risk. By selecting Gamble D, we have a 1 in 3 possibility of receiving nothing, and by selecting Gamble A, we have a 2 in 3 possibility of receiving nothing. If Gamble A was reduction unsure than Gamble B, it would follow[citation needed] that Gamble C was reduction unsure than Gamble D (and clamp versa), so, risk is not averted in this way.

However, since a accurate chances of winning are famous for Gambles A and D, and not famous for Gambles B and C, this can be taken as justification for some arrange of ambiguity hatred that can't be accounted for in approaching application theory. It has been demonstrated that this materialisation occurs usually when a choice set permits comparison of a obscure tender with a reduction deceptive tender (but not when obscure propositions are evaluated in isolation).[4]

Possible explanations[edit]

There have been several attempts to yield decision-theoretic explanations of Ellsberg’s observation. Since a probabilistic information accessible to a decision-maker is incomplete, these attempts infrequently concentration on quantifying a non-probabilistic ambiguity that a decision-maker faces – see Knightian uncertainty. That is, these choice approaches infrequently suspect that a representative formulates a biased (though not indispensably Bayesian) luck for probable outcomes.

One such try is formed on info-gap welfare theory. The representative is told accurate probabilities of some outcomes, yet a unsentimental definition of a luck numbers is not wholly clear. For instance, in a gambles discussed above, a luck of a red round is 30/90, that is a accurate number. Nonetheless, a representative cunning not distinguish, intuitively, between this and, say, 30/91. No luck information whatsoever is supposing per other outcomes, so a representative has really misleading biased impressions of these probabilities.

In light of a ambiguity in a probabilities of a outcomes, a representative is incompetent to weigh a accurate approaching utility. Consequently, a choice formed on maximizing a approaching application is also impossible. The info-gap proceed supposes that a representative practically formulates info-gap models for a subjectively capricious probabilities. The representative afterwards tries to satisfice a approaching application and to maximize a robustness opposite doubt in a close probabilities. This robust-satisficing proceed can be grown categorically to uncover that a choices of decision-makers should arrangement precisely a welfare annulment that Ellsberg observed.[5]

Another probable reason is that this form of diversion triggers a deception hatred mechanism. Many humans naturally assume in real-world situations that if they are not told a luck of a certain event, it is to mistreat them. People make a same decisions in a examination that they would about associated yet not matching real-life problems where a experimenter would be approaching to be a deceiver behaving opposite a subject’s interests. When faced with a choice between a red round and a black ball, a luck of 30/90 is compared to a lower part of a 0/90-60/90 operation (the luck of removing a black ball). The normal chairman expects there to be fewer black balls than yellow balls since in many real-world situations, it would be to a advantage of a experimenter to put fewer black balls in a vessel when charity such a gamble. On a other hand, when offering a choice between red and yellow balls and black and yellow balls, people assume that there contingency be fewer than 30 yellow balls as would be required to mistreat them. When creation a decision, it is utterly probable that people simply forget to cruise that a experimenter does not have a possibility to cgange a essence of a vessel in between a draws. In real-life situations, even if a vessel is not to be modified, people would be fearful of being cheated on that front as well.

A alteration of application speculation to incorporate doubt as graphic from risk is Choquet approaching utility, that also proposes a resolution to a paradox.

Alternative explanations[edit]

Other choice explanations embody a cunning supposition [6] and analogous stupidity hypothesis.[4] These theories charge a source of a ambiguity hatred to a participant’s pre-existing knowledge.

See also[edit]

  • Allais paradox
  • Ambiguity aversion
  • Experimental economics
  • Subjective approaching utility
  • Utility theory

References[edit]

  1. ^ Ellsberg, Daniel (1961). “Risk, Ambiguity, and a Savage Axioms”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 75 (4): 643–۶۶۹٫ doi:10.2307/1884324. JSTOR ۱۸۸۴۳۲۴٫ 
  2. ^ Keynes 1921, pp. ۷۵–۷۶, divide 315, footnote 2.
  3. ^ EconPort contention of a paradox
  4. ^ a b Fox, Craig R.; Tversky, Amos (1995). “Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (3): 585–۶۰۳٫ doi:10.2307/2946693. JSTOR ۲۹۴۶۶۹۳٫ 
  5. ^ Ben-Haim, Yakov (2006). Info-gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty (2nd ed.). Academic Press. territory 11.1. ISBN ۰-۱۲-۳۷۳۵۵۲-۱٫ 
  6. ^ Chip, Health (1991). “Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice underneath Uncertainty”. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4: 5–۲۸٫ doi:10.1007/bf00057884. 

Further reading[edit]

Article source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellsberg_paradox

A Paradoxical Dissection

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۵ دی ۱۳۹۳

Is it probable to disintegrate an 8×۸ block and file a pieces to form a 13×۵ rectangle? Common clarity indicates that this can't be done, since a area of a block is 64, while a area of a rectangle is 65. However, this animation seems to uncover that it is possible. What is going on?

 

 

Sam Loyd's Paradoxical Dissection

 

 

 

 

Since a rectangle is incomparable than a square, a pieces should not fit together precisely, though there should be a gap. In a prior image, a opening was lonesome adult by creation really tiny adjustments to a shapes. When a shapes are drawn accurately, a opening is revealed.

You competence be wondering how we can trust that this sketch is accurate, since a prior sketch also looked flattering convincing. This is where math comes to a rescue! Notice that a slope of a hypotenuse of a immature triangle is 3/8, though a slope of a longest side of a blue trapezoid is 2/5. Since 3/8 is reduction than 2/5, a slight opening exists between a immature triangle and a blue trapezoid.

Incidentally, a fact that 3/8 is really tighten to 2/5 is not a coincidence, though is formed on a properties of Fibonacci numbers. Note that 2, 3, 5, and 8 are uninterrupted Fibonacci numbers. One can emanate a identical enigmatic ratiocination by regulating any 4 uninterrupted Fibonacci numbers.

But a slow doubt still remains. The opening looks flattering tiny — how do we know that it has area 1? There are many ways to determine this, though one of a many engaging ways is to use Pick’s Theorem. Pick’s postulate states that if a polygon is drawn on a grid such that all vertices are during grid points (points with integer coordinates), afterwards a area is equal to i + b/2 − ۱, where i is a series of interior grid points and b is a series of grid points on a boundary. In this case, there are 4 grid points on a boundary: (0,0), (8,3), (13,5), and (5,2). There are no grid points in a interior, so a area is 0 + 4/2 − ۱ = ۱٫

This ratiocination is apparently due to Sam Loyd. The missing block puzzle is a famous various that is formed on dissecting a right triangle instead of a square.

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Article source: http://mathblag.wordpress.com/2011/08/28/a-paradoxical-dissection/

M.C. Escher – Image Categories – Impossible Constructions

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۸ آذر ۱۳۹۳

Copyright © ۲۰۱۴ All Rights Reserved. No partial of this website and or works by M.C. Escher might be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, but before accede in essay by The M.C. Escher Company B.V. Validate HTML5

Article source: http://www.mcescher.com/gallery/impossible-constructions/

Paradoxical nap | Contemporary sketch and incongruous …

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۳ آذر ۱۳۹۳
Paradoxical sleep | Contemporary drawing and figurative ...

Charcoal, red chalk, plexiglas hanged adult and feathers
۱۶ x 23 inches (1 drawing), 12 x 16 inches (4 drawing), 8 x 12 inches (3 drawing)
۲۰۱۳

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Article source: http://sandrakrasker.com/portfolio/paradoxical-sleep

PARADOXICAL, zentangle-inspired drawing. 20.5 cm.(8 …

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۳ آذر ۱۳۹۳
PARADOXICAL, zentangle-inspired drawing. 20.5 cm.(8 ...


PARADOXICAL, zentangle-inspired drawing. 20.5 cm.(8″) square.  2010 © Margaret Bremner, CZTSource: http://enthusiasticartist.blogspot.com/2010/11/paradoxical.html

Tags: Art, ART PROJECTS FOR KIDS, Artimagination, Doodling-Zenspiration, Eye candy, line drawings, Zen Tangling, Zentagling, Zentangle Other Cool Things, zentangle and doodles, Zentangles

Article source: http://relaxpics.com/paradoxical-zentangle-inspired-drawing-20-5-cm-8-square-2010-margaret-bremner-czt/

Dog Knot Stuck In Girl Pic enigmatic drawings by …

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۳ آذر ۱۳۹۳
Dog Knot Stuck In Girl Pic paradoxical drawings by ...


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Article source: http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1169041-3860214

Gnosis Articles

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۲ آذر ۱۳۹۳

This territory incorporates a following subjects:

  • Hermeticism
  • Gnosticism
  • Alchemy
  • Quantum physics
  • Scalar physics
  • Freudian and Jungian psychology
  • Greek philosophy
  • Judaism and Christianity
  • Biblical eschatology
  • Ancient history
  • Prophecy
  • Catastrophism
  • Grail myths
  • Timeline dynamics
  • Synchromysticism
  • Celtic/Vedic/Aryan mythology

I am sketch on a innumerable of determined subjects to exhibit a primary ground behind a existence. The “Gnosis” articles are what resulted from a vetting, analysis, and deconstruction of my possess Gnostic flashes perceived given 2004. These were skeleton keys that unbarred a “Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory” that supposing a singular context for all other conspiracies.

What is Gnosis?

Ideally, Gnosis is cordial knowledge, that that is given by impulse and explanation from within and above. It deals with a ultimate law of who we are, given we are here, where we are going, and what “this” is all about. It deals with a biggest questions and mysteries of a existence. That is what this territory is about.

Gnosticism has always been around, though a Christian form of it blossomed in a early partial of a initial millennium. The latter is what we conventionally consider of as “Gnosticism”, that is a set of beliefs of a early Christian Gnostics according to a scriptures and artifacts they and their critics left behind. But these are usually a dusty husks left behind.

It’s enigmatic to call oneself a Gnostic currently usually by being means to heave these writings, given Gnosis is about approach “inside” information on a Truth by impulse and revelation. we would supplement dreams and synchronistic superintendence to that as well. It’s about approach entrance to a aloft existence outward this Matrix Control System, to locate glimpses of what’s unequivocally going on here.

The early Gnostics would currently be called mystics, contactees, and channelers. They had a same faults. Some were deluded, others tapped into disinformation, and many grossly misinterpreted what they saw. Their proof mostly unsuccessful when attempting to pull conclusions from deficient information. For instance, in saying that a existence was generated by a authoritarian comprehension who ruled by law, ritual, and regulation, some ignorant Gnostics resolved that revolting opposite all law, including morality, was a pivotal to freedom, so they became deviant libertines. It’s from this kind of erring rebel meditative that Satanic / Luciferian streams diverged off a categorical Gnostic river. Like any aloft knowledge, Gnosticism leads to a aloft form of dualism between those who swing it responsibly and those who abuse it. Some use cordial believe to improved offer spirit, other to improved offer ego.

Only a tiny fragment of Gnostics tuned into a right “radio station” and rightly interpreted it, though their views were mislaid among a sound of a rest. Thus all Gnostics were criticized and persecuted for clearly creation adult whatever they wanted, that there was no inner coherence among them. In contrast, a convictions of a Church was set in mill and supposing complete dependability for a capricious of faith, so creation it a word of God on a drift that God speaks consistently. But this invulnerability of Church convictions over a immutability is a judicious fallacy. A bound Lie is worse than an elaborating perspective of Truth. This same misconception persists currently among physical skeptics and eremite fundamentalists who conflict like antibodies opposite unfamiliar ideas emanating from a spiritual, metaphysical, and enigmatic fields. To them it’s all New Age bunk. They tumble for a oldest pretence in a book, that is to play one distortion off another, to display a faults of one thing to clear swallowing a faults of another. True comprehension is transcending such binary meditative and perceptive what fake dichotomies try to conceal.

Modern Gnosis ideally taps into a same good of Truth informed to a correct of old. The ubiquitous thought stays a same; it’s a sum and interpretations that differ. The Truth is too fantastic, grand, complex, and hyper-dimensional to be ideally explained in a informative context and language. Therefore, whoever gets entrance to it will indispensably appreciate it by his or her possess filters, and dip usually as most from that good as can fit in his bucket. we brought a large bucket.

Words from a Modern Gnostic

Philip K. Dick was a loyal complicated Gnostic. He had his possess Gnostic visions toward a finish of his life, nonetheless he was always underneath a superintendence of a revelatory comprehension given a commencement of his career.

PKD spent his final years attempting to deconstruct and wordify his visionary vision. we consider he was one among really few in a exoteric race (as against to a enigmatic race that includes Rosicrucians, Illuminati, etc…) who glimpsed a loyal inlet of a “matrix reality.”

To interpretation this intro, review PKD’s The Ten Major Principles of Gnostic Revelation, with that we find nearby sum agreement. For a some-more consummate gain on PKD’s visions, see this book containing serve excerpts from his personal records patrician Exegesis.

Read a Summary of a Gnosis Series

 

Article source: http://montalk.net/gnosis/

Paradoxical Gypsy

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۲۲ آذر ۱۳۹۳
Paradoxical Gypsy

Well friends we wish that we had a smashing holiday deteriorate and a commencement of 2013 is treating we well. we can already tell this is going to be a busy, bustling year! Lot’s of projects in a works, not a slightest of that is a arriving book for Art Abandonment and flattering full training schedule.

Here’s a bit of what we have designed so far…more specifics to be combined once we sum firmed up.

March 9-10  during the Upstart Crow in Delta, BC

Mixed Media Mythologies

Mixed Media Mythologies
Collaging a Translucent

April 4-7 Art-is-You, Nashville, TN

Illuminated Manuscripts

Beauty in a Beast a twin category I’ll be training with my smashing hubby Michael deMeng
Illuminated Manuscripts

April 23-27 Artology Retreat, Port Townsend, WA



Michael and we group adult again for 4 fanciful seminar days of a Fantastical Fantocini – collaged puppet entertainment sets and found intent puppets


May 9-10 Random Arts, Saluda, NC
Collaging a Translucent
Collaging a Translucent
Metamorphosis


May 16-18   Small Studios, Avonlake, OH

Illuminated Manuscripts
Illuminated Manuscripts (2-day class)
Marquis de Scroll

June 16-23   Salty Sea-Dogs Sumptuous Sirens, New York, NY

Seadusa – Sideshow Banner
Hang out in extraordinary New York City with Michael and I. Four days of seminar will have us operative on collaged and embellished Sideshow Banners and nautical desirous found intent Masks that we’ll use to attend in a Mermaid Parade on Coney Island! …don’t worry we’ve combined copiousness of cold site saying  on a report as well!

July 18th 20th  Collage, Portland, OR

Collaging a Translucent
Collaging a Translucent
Veils of Psyche

August 3-5   Art Unraveled, Scottsdale, AR

Exquisite Enigmas
Exquisite Enigmas
Marquis de Scroll


September 19-23   Art-is-You, Petaluma, CA

Marquis de Scroll
Illuminated Manuscripts (2 day)
Marquis de Scroll
Exquisit Enigmas
Mixed-Media Mythologies


October 10-14   Art-is-You, Stamford, CT

Mixed Media Mythologies
Marquis de Scroll
Exquisit Enigmas
Mixed-Media Mythologies

Single Minded Binding

…still a integrate of some-more to come. Hope to see we somewhere….!

Article source: http://paradoxicalgypsy.blogspot.com/

Schroedinger’s Tabby

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۱۹ آذر ۱۳۹۳
Schroedinger's Tabby



Shift by Rhian Gallagher (Auckland University Press 2011)
Winner of a NZ Post Book Award for Poetry 2012



Magnificent Moon by Ashleigh Young (Victoria University Press 2012) Has to be a favourite for a NZ Post Book Award for Poetry 2013

Poems by dual New Zealand women who have both lived as expats in London and returned home. Both complicated artistic essay underneath Bill Manhire during Victoria University. Both books are published by university presses. What else do they have in common?

Well, this: their behind cover blurbs both enclose a description astonishing mutated by a form of a word quiet.

“For 10 years a occasional coming of an Ashleigh Young poem has teased and gay her flourishing round of admirers. Here during final is her quietly astonishing initial book.” (VUP 2012)

“According to Bill Manhire, Rhian Gallagher is one of a quiet, astonishing secrets of New Zealand writing.” (AUP 2011)

There is one startling thing that Rhian Gallagher and Ashleigh Young do not have in common: Ashleigh Young’s work was included in a highly controversial ‘Anthology’ of New Zealand Literature published by AUP in ۲۰۱۲٫ Some commentators collate a list of inclusions in a oversized contemporary territory of this unwieldy volume as reading some-more like a personal cocktail celebration entice list of a married integrate editors, Jane Stafford and Mark Williams, who both harangue during Victoria University, than as a satisfactory and deputy representation of a best of new New Zealand writing. It does seem weird to have enclosed Young, who had not utterly published her initial book during that point, during a apparent responsibility of including work by AUP producer Gallagher in an AUP volume! Gallagher’s third book, and her second communication volume Shift was also uninformed from carrying won a NZ Post esteem for best communication book at a 2012 inhabitant book awards. Her initial volume, published in a UK, had been shortlisted for a prestigious Forward Prize. The fact that a South Island formed Rhian Gallagher has apparently remained a tip to a Wellington-based anthology editors is indeed astonishing, and her work is just one of the many deafening omissions by a editors in a “AUP Anthology”. I think it’s some-more accurate to call it a “cultural compendium” than an “anthology of literature” given so many of a editorial choices have been scholastic of arbitrarily imposed informative and chronological themes rather than having been selected since they were a best pieces by a best authors. Such an impressionistic project would not in itself be a bad idea; though unfortunately a existence of a particular miscellany that AUP has constructed conflicts with a settled aims on a cover of a ‘doorstop’ (more unkindly referred to as a ‘white elephant’):  “In novella and non-fiction, letters and speeches, stories and song, a editors unearth a opposite voices of a New Zealand imagination. And for years to come this anthology will be a beam to what’s value reading – and why.” Nope – contemptible – that is fake advertising.

My possess take on a AUP Anthology is that unconstrained debates concerning a omissions will not be as useful as would be an research of a flaws of a methodology that led to a important omissions. we have listed dozens of names that are missing, that are equally as honourable of inclusion as many of a lucky writers. There will always be a details and a outs ensuing from personal taste, fashion, elitism, parochialism, cronyism, a gaps in a editorial knowledge, even maybe a personal animosities, that will change a preference process, nonetheless some of these factors seem to have operated excessively in this case. What also seems to be opposite in the production of this ‘anthology’ is that a editors frequently seem to have deserted an author’s best work in foster of obtuse squibs or vignettes that propitious in with their possess fanciful framework. This might give an evocative snapshot of a nation from a viewpoint of a towers of Victoria University, though it can't explain to paint a literature.

PS Please don’t suppose we am suggesting that Ashleigh Young’s work is not estimable to paint a latest and a greatest. In fact I would put income on her pretentious debut outclassing the output of some of her former teachers and mentors. That’s a approach it rolls.

Article source: http://schroedingerstabby.blogspot.com/

Man vs. Logic: Drawing Hands

نوشته شده در موضوع تصاویر پارادوکس در ۱۹ آذر ۱۳۹۳

Article source: http://2kjj.blogspot.com/2009/11/drawing-hands_09.html